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美国10年期国债收益率突破4.5%，上次看到这个收益率还是在2007年。对比中国国债收益率以及存款，这个价格非常有吸引力。
因此集思录和周围朋友都在讨论买入美国国债，比如TLT。
中国投资者趋之若鹜的同时，美国对冲基金大鳄阿克曼也在做空美国长期国债。从趋势投资的角度看，TLT处于标准的突破下跌态势。这种情形让我联想到了2020年初中国投资者抄底20美元的原油的情形，那是美国对冲基金对新入场韭菜的一次精准猎杀。
我认为放长一点看，Fed开启降息周期的时候，现在买入的TLT大概率能赚钱。但是美国高利率看起来还要持续一段时间。在这段时间里，TLT会不会有一个幅度惊人的下跌，让抄历史大底的投资者亏损出局然后再拉升？
TLT再差不会跌破70元吧（目前89），但是我们也曾经认为原油再低不能跌破10美元吧？
大家讨论下，TLT有铁底吗？这个底极限位置可以有多低？
因此集思录和周围朋友都在讨论买入美国国债，比如TLT。
中国投资者趋之若鹜的同时，美国对冲基金大鳄阿克曼也在做空美国长期国债。从趋势投资的角度看，TLT处于标准的突破下跌态势。这种情形让我联想到了2020年初中国投资者抄底20美元的原油的情形，那是美国对冲基金对新入场韭菜的一次精准猎杀。
我认为放长一点看，Fed开启降息周期的时候，现在买入的TLT大概率能赚钱。但是美国高利率看起来还要持续一段时间。在这段时间里，TLT会不会有一个幅度惊人的下跌，让抄历史大底的投资者亏损出局然后再拉升？
TLT再差不会跌破70元吧（目前89），但是我们也曾经认为原油再低不能跌破10美元吧？
大家讨论下，TLT有铁底吗？这个底极限位置可以有多低？
4
赞同来自: e55555 、湖塘 、问桃酥桃酥 、yanghongyong
通过富途sell put已入500股。计划接下来半年多继续入2000，直至降息通道打开。
底层逻辑：主动持有美元资产，以备不时之需。如果老美不行了，估计这个世界也就玩完了...
底层逻辑：主动持有美元资产，以备不时之需。如果老美不行了，估计这个世界也就玩完了...
0
@yanghongyong
美国10年期国债期货，那个有名义票息吗？我记得是6%，但是按照到期收益率计算出来的价格跟交易价格差一点。
各个时期发行的债券票息是不一样的，低的1.5%，高的4.5%确实如此。
美国10年期国债期货，那个有名义票息吗？我记得是6%，但是按照到期收益率计算出来的价格跟交易价格差一点。
4
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@天书
1. 过去20年中国的通缩输入结束
2. 美国战略原油储备将来买入，沙特俄罗斯减产支撑油价
3. 绿色能源贵
4. 美国政府现在有33万亿天量债务，两党都缺乏解决的诚意
5. 近期新发国债多
6. 经济恢复好
7. 2%这个目标并不科学，不管鲍威尔如何强调2%的通胀目标，都回不去了。
8. 街上碰到债券大佬，他说现在新发国债太多了，接不过来。
9. 做多的唯一理由是，现在价格是15年低点。但80年代，大家觉得5%的收益率很低呢。
10. 市场交易波动会让收益率比5.5%更高。
我觉得，做多的信仰除了来自于过去15年的行情，还有美联储的目标以及美元金融体系维系自身存在的必要性。
一套类似的逻辑也可以来描述中国的房地产市场。
Bill Ackman总结一下，他的观点，做空理由很全面：
@BillAckman
I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.
The world is a structurally...
1. 过去20年中国的通缩输入结束
2. 美国战略原油储备将来买入，沙特俄罗斯减产支撑油价
3. 绿色能源贵
4. 美国政府现在有33万亿天量债务，两党都缺乏解决的诚意
5. 近期新发国债多
6. 经济恢复好
7. 2%这个目标并不科学，不管鲍威尔如何强调2%的通胀目标，都回不去了。
8. 街上碰到债券大佬，他说现在新发国债太多了，接不过来。
9. 做多的唯一理由是，现在价格是15年低点。但80年代，大家觉得5%的收益率很低呢。
10. 市场交易波动会让收益率比5.5%更高。
我觉得，做多的信仰除了来自于过去15年的行情，还有美联储的目标以及美元金融体系维系自身存在的必要性。
一套类似的逻辑也可以来描述中国的房地产市场。
0
@yanghongyong
不用管票息的，这是国债ETF基金（手上有几十支国债），某个价位就对应某个收益率没有票息，你是按照久期算一下吗？但是票息是影响久期，也影响凸性的，收益率跨度大了，一阶的久期算的就不准了
8
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@yanghongyong
对我来说买1万块拿30年没有任何意义。
您可能不知道，比利时100年超长期国债曾经跌到过2块钱，也曾经从2块涨到100多，而这一切都是在二三十年时间内发生的。你的投资年限很难超过3年，更不要说30年了。
所以，我才问投机角度看，能跌到哪里？
既然您知道美国国债是全球最安全的资产，但是TLT的价格从高点回撤了50%，这种资产到底是安全还是不安全呢？
按照过去30年的金融范式，TLT跌到50块的冲击比原油负价格更甚，无论是认知上还是对现实世界。因为我们都知道原油负价格就是赌场出老千，也是个短期现象。而长期美债收益率到5%以上，您和您的下一代将面临一个跟您完全不同的世界。
ps：标题不惊悚没有热度啊
拿原油期货的负价和美国国债的下跌相提并论，不是无知就是别有用心我是做投机的，不是做投资的。
原油期货允许负价是写入规则里面的。而美国国债是全球金融资产的锚定品，是每半年付息一次的全球最安全的金融资产。任何金融产品的下跌上涨是正常的，尤其是20-30年长久期的TLT涨跌是很大的，但只要你一直持有到期，至少能连本带利拿回来，这跟持有可能会跌到负价且强制清算的原油期货怎么能混为一谈呢？
对我来说买1万块拿30年没有任何意义。
您可能不知道，比利时100年超长期国债曾经跌到过2块钱，也曾经从2块涨到100多，而这一切都是在二三十年时间内发生的。你的投资年限很难超过3年，更不要说30年了。
所以，我才问投机角度看，能跌到哪里？
既然您知道美国国债是全球最安全的资产，但是TLT的价格从高点回撤了50%，这种资产到底是安全还是不安全呢？
按照过去30年的金融范式，TLT跌到50块的冲击比原油负价格更甚，无论是认知上还是对现实世界。因为我们都知道原油负价格就是赌场出老千，也是个短期现象。而长期美债收益率到5%以上，您和您的下一代将面临一个跟您完全不同的世界。
ps：标题不惊悚没有热度啊
16
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Bill Ackman
@BillAckman
I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.
The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’ bargaining power continues to rise. Strikes abound, with more likely to come as successful walkouts achieve substantial wage gains.
Energy prices are rising rapidly. Not refilling the SPR was a misguided and dangerous mistake. Our strategic assets should never be used to achieve short-term political objectives. Now we must refill the SPR while OPEC and Russia cut production.
The green energy transition is and will remain incalculably expensive. And higher gas prices will raise inflationary expectations. Just ask your average American. They see the prices at the pump and in the grocery store and don’t believe inflation is moderating.
Our national debt is $33 trillion and rising rapidly. There is no sign of fiscal discipline by either party or by the presumptive presidential nominees. And each debt ceiling is an opportunity for our divided government and its most extreme actors to get media attention, and for our nation to threaten default. This is not a good way to recruit the many new buyers we need for our bonds.
The government is selling hundreds of billions of bills, notes and bonds weekly. China and other foreign nations, historically major buyers of our debt, are now selling. And the QT unwind experiment has barely begun. Imagine trying to do a massive IPO where the underwriter, insiders and short sellers are all selling at once, competing to hit every bid on the way down while the analysts downgrade their ratings to ‘Sell.’
Our economy is outperforming expectations. Major infrastructure spending is beginning to contribute to economic growth and the supply of additional debt. Recession predictions have been pushed out beyond 2024.
The long-term inflation rate is not going back to 2% no matter how many times Chairman Powell reiterates it as his target. It was arbitrarily set at 2% after the financial crisis in a world very different from the one we live in now.
I bumped into the CIO of one of the world’s largest fixed income asset managers the other night and asked him how it was going. He looked like he had had a tough day. He greeted me by saying: ‘There are just too many bonds’ — a veritable tsunami of new issuance each week. I asked him what he was going to do about it. He said: ‘The only thing you can do is step away.’
I have been surprised at how low long-term rates are. I think the best explanation is that bond investors thought of 4% as a high rate of interest because rates hadn’t breached 4% for nearly 15 years. When investors saw the ‘opportunity’ to lock in 4% for 30 years, they grabbed it as a ‘once-in-their-career opportunity,’ but today’s world is very different from the one they have experienced up until now.
The long-term inflation rate plus the real rate of interest plus term premium suggests that 5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys. And query whether 0.5% is a sufficient real long term rate in an increasingly risky world.
And the technicals could cause yields to go even higher, particularly in the short term. We saw the beginnings of that today.
It wasn’t that long ago that a previous generation thought five percent was a low rate of interest for a long-term, fixed-rate obligation.
But I could be wrong. AI might save us.
Bill Ackman对于美国30年国债的看法，他认为合适的收益率是5.5%：）
@BillAckman
I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.
The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’ bargaining power continues to rise. Strikes abound, with more likely to come as successful walkouts achieve substantial wage gains.
Energy prices are rising rapidly. Not refilling the SPR was a misguided and dangerous mistake. Our strategic assets should never be used to achieve short-term political objectives. Now we must refill the SPR while OPEC and Russia cut production.
The green energy transition is and will remain incalculably expensive. And higher gas prices will raise inflationary expectations. Just ask your average American. They see the prices at the pump and in the grocery store and don’t believe inflation is moderating.
Our national debt is $33 trillion and rising rapidly. There is no sign of fiscal discipline by either party or by the presumptive presidential nominees. And each debt ceiling is an opportunity for our divided government and its most extreme actors to get media attention, and for our nation to threaten default. This is not a good way to recruit the many new buyers we need for our bonds.
The government is selling hundreds of billions of bills, notes and bonds weekly. China and other foreign nations, historically major buyers of our debt, are now selling. And the QT unwind experiment has barely begun. Imagine trying to do a massive IPO where the underwriter, insiders and short sellers are all selling at once, competing to hit every bid on the way down while the analysts downgrade their ratings to ‘Sell.’
Our economy is outperforming expectations. Major infrastructure spending is beginning to contribute to economic growth and the supply of additional debt. Recession predictions have been pushed out beyond 2024.
The long-term inflation rate is not going back to 2% no matter how many times Chairman Powell reiterates it as his target. It was arbitrarily set at 2% after the financial crisis in a world very different from the one we live in now.
I bumped into the CIO of one of the world’s largest fixed income asset managers the other night and asked him how it was going. He looked like he had had a tough day. He greeted me by saying: ‘There are just too many bonds’ — a veritable tsunami of new issuance each week. I asked him what he was going to do about it. He said: ‘The only thing you can do is step away.’
I have been surprised at how low long-term rates are. I think the best explanation is that bond investors thought of 4% as a high rate of interest because rates hadn’t breached 4% for nearly 15 years. When investors saw the ‘opportunity’ to lock in 4% for 30 years, they grabbed it as a ‘once-in-their-career opportunity,’ but today’s world is very different from the one they have experienced up until now.
The long-term inflation rate plus the real rate of interest plus term premium suggests that 5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys. And query whether 0.5% is a sufficient real long term rate in an increasingly risky world.
And the technicals could cause yields to go even higher, particularly in the short term. We saw the beginnings of that today.
It wasn’t that long ago that a previous generation thought five percent was a low rate of interest for a long-term, fixed-rate obligation.
But I could be wrong. AI might save us.
Bill Ackman对于美国30年国债的看法，他认为合适的收益率是5.5%：）
0
负价格原油，并不是真有负价格原油。
而是当时美国修改石油期货交易规则。
可供现货交割量极为有限，造成期货多头无法交割，只能被迫以负价格成交。
现货交易是不可能出现负价。
如果是期货的话，关键看规则。
进入降息周期后，利率下降快，美国国债就可能出现暴跌。
利率下降慢，美国国债不可能出现暴跌。
而是当时美国修改石油期货交易规则。
可供现货交割量极为有限，造成期货多头无法交割，只能被迫以负价格成交。
现货交易是不可能出现负价。
如果是期货的话，关键看规则。
进入降息周期后，利率下降快，美国国债就可能出现暴跌。
利率下降慢，美国国债不可能出现暴跌。
0
负价格原油，并不是真有负价格原油。
而是当时美国修改石油期货交易规则。
可供现货交割量极为有限，造成期货多头无法交割，只能被迫以负价格成交。
现货交易是不可能出现负价。
如果是期货的话，关键看规则。
进入降息周期后，利率下降快，美国国债就可能出现暴跌。
利率下降慢，美国国债不可能出现暴跌。
而是当时美国修改石油期货交易规则。
可供现货交割量极为有限，造成期货多头无法交割，只能被迫以负价格成交。
现货交易是不可能出现负价。
如果是期货的话，关键看规则。
进入降息周期后，利率下降快，美国国债就可能出现暴跌。
利率下降慢，美国国债不可能出现暴跌。
1
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转：因市场预期美联储将在更长时间维持高利率，最大的美国长期国债ETF遭遇有记录以来最大跌势。据彭博汇总的数据，规模390亿美元的iShares安硕20年期以上美国国债ETF(代码TLT)已从2020年的历史高点下跌48%，交易价格处于2011年以来最低。与此同时，IHS Markit Ltd.数据显示，对该ETF的做空已经增加，空头头寸占流通基金份额的比例达到约一个月来最高水平。
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